WATSONVILLE — The summary report detailing what it would take to bring passenger rail service to Santa Cruz County had been public for almost a week, but Thursday offered the first glimpse at what the local legislators ultimately responsible for the project’s fate thought of it — and how they plan to proceed.
The county Regional Transportation Commission convened in Watsonville for its monthly meeting, which included a detailed analysis of the Zero Emission Passenger Rail and Trail Project Concept Report 19-page executive summary. The item was informational by nature, but the 10 voting members present eventually homed in on the project’s estimated $4.28 billion price tag and its projected $34 million to $41 million of annual operating expenses.
While commissioners were divided on the project’s overall feasibility, they all agreed it was time to give county residents an unvarnished look at how much money they’d need to fork over to bring the 22-mile project to fruition.
In a motion made by Commissioner Fred Keeley and unanimously agreed to by his colleagues, the commission directed its staff to draw up a financial analysis detailing the local cost share necessary to fund construction of the project and its ongoing operations and maintenance.
The analysis, based on estimates for how much of the financial burden was likely to be shouldered through federal grant programs, outlines four scenarios: local match funding requirements of 20%, 30%, 40%, and 50% for capital costs. The staff was also directed to assume 100% local coverage for the operations and maintenance fees, since those expenses are typically not supported by grant awards.
For each scenario, staff was asked to provide a table sharing the level of tax increase — the commission’s best and only tool for raising public funds — that would have to be approved by voters to keep the project on track.
Keeley said the impetus for his motion was to get a “fact-driven, serious conversation” about costs.
I think what (the motion) would do is, simultaneously, sort of even up the conversation around the costs and how that might be paid for," said Keeley. "I think it’s time to daylight that.
The commission asked that the financial summary be released concurrent with the more in-depth final concept report that is expected to be considered by the commission for approval on Aug. 7. Executive Director Sarah Christensen told the Sentinel that these reports will be released before the August meeting but couldn’t immediately say when.
Going on record
The motion was approved after about an hour of meeting time was dedicated to the agenda item. During that period, several commissioners asked clarifying questions about the report and weighed in — some more subtly than others — on the project’s viability.
The project envisions a zero-emission passenger rail service from Pajaro in North Monterey County to Natural Bridges in Santa Cruz, with 30-minute headways and up to a 45-minute end-to-end runtime. It also includes developing 12 miles of the Coastal Rail Trail project.
For Commissioner Manu Koenig, who hasn’t been shy about his skepticism of passenger rail in the county, the executive summary was definitive. Koenig did some calculations on his own and by his estimates and assumptions, the county must generate $104 million per year in sales tax revenue to $148 million per year to fund capital costs. That equates, he said, to a 2% to 2.75% sales tax increase countywide.
In my mind the primary goal with this entire study process was to determine whether or not this project is feasible," said Koenig. "I think we have our answer: it’s not.
Others weren’t ready to throw in the towel. In fact, Commissioner Justin Cummings said he remained an optimist when it came to the project, given the commission staff’s impressive track record of securing state and federal grants, and what the passenger rail could mean for the next generation.
This is a long-term effort, it’s a long-term investment and it’s a marathon project that is really not going to be for us, but for future generations (and) a rail line that’s going to last the next 100 years," he said. "We need to be creative around this, and we need to advocate. Because one of things we’ve seen … if you’re a strong advocate, money they say is not there can appear.
Comments from Commissioner Felipe Hernandez, a colleague of Koenig and Cummings on the Board of Supervisors, were cut from the same cloth and suggested that creative collaboration with other transportation agencies and districts could prove a prudent strategy.
I see it as something that can be done for our children and for our children’s children," said Hernandez. "I would hate to be the person that killed the project that is going to be needed in 35 years, 40 years. And we’re going to have that same congestion that’s there right now.
But Koenig also had a fair share of commissioners who thought along the same lines as he did. Kim De Serpa was skeptical that federal entities would be willing to provide adequate financial backing and was hesitant to take the local financial focus away from road improvements, which she said are desperately needed in her district.
"I don't think it's feasible at these costs," said De Serpa, adding that she was interested to see options for preserving the rail corridor for the future.
Commissioner Steve Clark also pointed out that the total cost for the project was greater than the combined annual budgets for the county’s five governmental jurisdictions.
But tempting as it was to sketch out the final destination, some commissioners kept the cards closer to their chests and reserved judgment until the final reports are presented and unpacked.
Every single person up here, in the room or in this county can see that price tag and feel a knot in their stomach," said Commissioner Monica Martinez. "I think it's important for us as commissioners to really look at the numbers, look at the options, look at the scenarios that have been presented and have some discussions about that.
Keeley said he thinks the financial report and comprehensive concept report in August will go a long way toward helping the community and the commission decide if they’re ready to shoulder the financial burdens necessary for the polarizing project.
I don't think it's going out on a limb here saying that we all want things in our life, and some of those things we have the resources to pay for and some of them we want and we can’t pay for it," said Keeley. "And I don’t think that’s different in our public agency life either.
The commissioners weren’t the only ones who weighed in on the viability debate. Though the commission’s staff by nature must carry out whatever directive is given to it by the deliberative body, De Serpa, while apologizing for putting her on the spot, asked Christensen if she thought the project was feasible at the estimated prices.
“I will say any project is feasible with enough money and enough community support,” replied Christensen. “This is an ambitious project, you are correct. This project is very expensive for our community, but if we prioritize the project over other needs and we are serious about delivering this project, our team is going to figure out how to get it done.”
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