Israel's attack on Iranian nuclear and military sites on Friday, and the resulting oil-price surge and airline stock slump , could pose even more obstacles for consumers navigating an already complex system. unusual summer travel season .
The U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil was up more than 7% in Friday trading, while shares of American Airlines Inc., Delta Air Lines Inc., and United Airlines Holdings Inc. were each down more than 3%.
About half of the price The cost of a gallon of gasoline is determined by the price of crude oil itself, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, and experts say motorists can expect gas prices to rise as soon as Saturday — but not by a significant amount. Crude oil is also used to produce jet fuel, and airlines can pass on increased fuel costs to consumers in the form of higher flight tickets.
See more : Travelers are waiting. n until the last minute to book trips. Here’s when that works — and when it can backfire.
Travelers need to pay even more attention than normal to the geopolitical situation, no matter where they are traveling these days," said Clint Henderson, managing editor of the Points Guy travel website. "There is a lot of global uncertainty at the moment, so travelers should keep in mind the adage 'knowledge is power.'
Gas prices expected to rise, but remain relatively low
Gas prices could rise by 10 to 25 cents per gallon over the next couple of weeks in response to Israel’s attack, said GasBuddy petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan. The national average price per gallon was about $3.10 as of Friday, down 35 cents per gallon from this time last year, according to GasBuddy data. So if De Haan’s prediction plays out, gas prices would still be relatively low for this time of year, when kids are getting out of school and families are heading out on road trips.
De Haan said that the markets might be overreacting a bit to Friday's attack. Unless there is a much larger escalation in the Middle East, he doesn't think that motorists should worry about prices skyrocketing at the pump in the near future.
"If we saw a Category 5 hurricane in Texas or Louisiana, that would be far more impactful to prices than this," De Haan noted.
AAA spokesperson Aixa Diaz said she is not rushing to the gas station to fill up her car, either. She observed that it would take a much larger spike in crude-oil prices to get back to where we were with gas prices last year.
“We don’t want to panic anyone into thinking, ‘Oh my gosh, my road trip is ruined,’” Diaz said. “But don’t be surprised if you’re paying a few cents more in the next couple of days.”
See more : Oil prices surge as much as 14%, U.S. stock futures fall as Israel strikes Iran
Still, Diaz was keeping an eye on oil prices. The price of a barrel of crude oil was about $72 Friday afternoon, after rising as high as $77 on the news of Israel’s attack. If that number gets into the $80 or $90 range, that’s when motorists would really start to notice a spike, she said.
Travelers could see more expensive airfare — eventually
Henderson from The Points Guy doesn't expect Israel's strike on Iran to have a big impact on international travel, except for travel to and from the Middle East. The airspace over Iran, Iraq, Jordan, and Syria was empty as of Friday afternoon, according to data from Flight Radar, causing airlines to divert and cancel flights.
International carriers such as Israel-based El Al and Dubai-based Emirates will feel the most pain, Henderson said, as the airspace closure is forcing airlines to take detours, which leads to higher fuel costs to complete longer routes.
Air India, which is still reeling from the deadly Boeing 787 Dreamliner crash Thursday will also be impacted as many of its routes fly over Iran. The airline is currently not flying over neighboring Pakistan, either; longstanding tensions between the two countries have recently run high.
See more : Airline stocks take a beating as the Israel-Iran conflict gives consumers another reason not to travel
Some who had plans to travel to Israel or the United Arab Emirates may be rethinking those trips, but I don’t think this has most Americans canceling travel plans to Europe, for example," Henderson said. "If it turns into a much larger conflict, of course, all bets are off.
Increasing oil prices could make flying more expensive, too. From one 42-gallon barrel of crude oil, U.S. refineries produce about 20 gallons of regular gasoline, 11 to 13 gallons of diesel fuel, and three to four gallons of jet fuel, on average, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Changes in jet-fuel prices can take months to show up in ticket prices, Henderson noted. Airlines can also put a fuel surcharge on tickets if oil prices continue to rise and remain high, but that likely wouldn’t happen right away, he said.
Some airlines choose to absorb the cost of pricier jet fuel to remain competitive.
"It will hurt airlines' bottom lines, however, and a sustained increase in oil prices will eventually be passed along, at least partially, to consumers," Henderson said.
How to protect your international trip
Experts recommend Americans traveling abroad to consider the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP), a free service for U.S. citizens and nationals that allows the State Department to quickly contact them in case of emergency. It also provides real-time updates about health, weather, safety, and security in the country where you’re traveling.
It’s never a bad idea to consider travel insurance, either, but keep in mind: most standard travel policies exclude travel advisories, losses caused by war and acts of war, said Daniel Durazo, external communications director at travel-insurance company Allianz Partners USA.
Check your travel-insurance policy for a list of "covered reasons" or situations that the policy covers. Some insurers offer coverage that allows you to cancel for any reason — like Allianz’s Cancel Anytime upgrade, which can reimburse 80% of unused, prepaid, nonrefundable trip costs for almost any reason not included in your existing plan.
See also: Premium travel perks like VIP lounges and rewards points offer less than they used to — but these upgrades are still worth it.
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