The conflict between Israel and Iran "Almost certainly" will increase the risk of "proxy attacks" motivated or backed by Iran on UK soil, intelligence officials have warned.
Following Israel's offensive In the early hours of Friday, an exchange of ballistic missile fire has erupted between the two countries, leaving military and nuclear facilities in ruins and risking hundreds of civilian casualties.
Iran has threatened to strike UK military bases in the region if Britain aids Israel in the conflict. So far, unlike the US, the UK has not as yet helped Israel shoot down Iranian drones or missiles.
Four UK intelligence sources have said UK involvement would also significantly increase the risk to the UK on the domestic front from state-backed Iranian operations or “lone wolf” attacks sparked by the conflict in the Middle East.
One UK intelligence source said that British involvement in the conflict risked “proxy conflicts” in major UK cities and towns. A second stated that previous escalations in the Israel-Iran conflict saw a “spike” in “lone wolf risk,” and was certain the same would happen again.
Another, when asked if "lone wolf" attacks – acts of terrorism without direct support or influence from a larger organization – were now an increased risk, replied: “Agreed”.
There has been no change to the UK’s national terror threat level, which currently sits at “severe” – meaning an attack is highly likely – but Whitehall is monitoring threats rising from instability in the Middle East.
Matthew Dunn, a former MI6 officer, said that UK intelligence agencies will now be "aggressively preparing for the worst," including "terrorism or state-sponsored surgical attacks on UK soil or overseas installations."
He told The i Paper De-escalation in the Middle East is crucial, but even with that outcome the United Kingdom not only remains a target but is now firmly in the crosshairs.
Through historical choices on who we partner with, it can be argued that we have allowed ourselves to be suckered into this position by the aggressive and wholly independent actions of others such as Israel.
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Plainly put, the UK is damned if it helps, damned if it doesn’t help.
Jewish communities in the UK have already started raising alarm bells over the increased threat. CST, a security organization aimed at protecting Jewish establishments and organizations in the UK, warned its followers on X to "be vigilant" and follow "strict security measures" in place at communal buildings.
It is understood that UK-based munition suppliers to Israel have also started increasing security measures, out of fear of retribution from Iranian-backed operations.
A history of hostility
Iran has intensified its hostile and covert operations on UK soil. In May 2025, three Iranian nationals were accused of conducting surveillance and reconnaissance activities with the intent to facilitate serious acts of violence targeting UK-based journalists associated with ‘Iran International’, a Persian-language media outlet critical of the Iranian regime.
Daniel Khalife, a young British Army soldier who has been spying for Iran, was sentenced to 14 years in prison in February after escaping from jail by strapping himself to the bottom of a food delivery van.
Last year, Ken McCallum, director general of MI5, said the agency’s state threats investigations had increased by 48 per cent in the previous 12 months, noting that since January 2022, the police and MI5 had responded to 20 Iran-backed plots presenting potentially lethal threats.
Sir Keir Starmer confirmed the UK's military build-up in the region on Saturday and revealed he had urged Israel's Prime Minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, to avoid an all-out war with Iran.
The UK has so far not been involved in defending Tel Aviv, despite having previously done so when Tehran sent missile barrages at the city in April and October last year.
On Sunday, the UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves said she will not comment on whether the UK plans to deploy assets in support of Israel.
A director of a think tank has said that the UK would make itself a "legitimate target" if it uses military power to support Israel. Hamidreza Gholamzadeh, who heads up the Iranian think tank DiploHouse, told Laura Kuenssberg: "Iran is going to defend itself by any means, and any country... who supports the Israelis would be a legitimate target for Iran".
Ahead of Sunday’s G7 summit in Canada, Starmer said: “We are moving assets to the region, including jets, and that is for contingency support in the region. I will be clear-eyed in relation to our duties and obligations, and my duties as the prime minister of the United Kingdom.”
A government spokesperson said: "We consistently work closely with policing and community partners to ensure the safety and security of the public."
We continue to take strong action to hold the Iranian regime accountable, sanctioning more than 450 Iranian individuals and entities.
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